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The flagship

The call, and the odds — in dollars.

Most farm software describes your field. The Decision Twin runs your strategy across a live weather ensemble and the last decade of local weather, then answers the one question that matters: which move pays, by how much, and how sure are we?

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Decision Twin · this season

Irrigate at 55% MAD

+$92/acexpected edge

8/10seasons won

+$18worst year

Ten modelled seasons vs. dryland — read the range, not the midpoint.

“Should I irrigate, or save the water and the diesel?” isn't a question about this field today. It's a question about ten possible seasons — and which choice wins across most of them.

That's the question the Decision Twin is built to answer.

How a verdict is built

Your strategy, run against the weather it will actually face

01 · Input

Your strategy

Planting date, variety, irrigation trigger — the levers you actually control.

02 · Weather

Ensemble + history

A live sub‑seasonal ensemble and the last decade of local weather — the seasons you might get.

03 · Model

Water‑limited yield

A FAO‑56 soil‑water balance drives a FAO‑33 yield response, season by season.

04 · Verdict

The call & the odds

Expected edge in dollars, how many seasons it wins, and the worst‑year floor.

The simulator

Dryland vs. irrigated, ten seasons deep.

Pick a strategy and Row Wise replays it across ten modelled seasons. You don't get one optimistic number — you get the whole distribution: a bar per season, a year‑by‑year table of yield and margin, and the honest tally of how often the move actually beats the alternative.

Expected edge — the average dollar difference per acre.
Seasons won — how many of ten it comes out ahead.
Worst year — the downside floor, not just the average.

The what-if panel with planting date, variety and irrigation controls above a per-season yield chart and table

What‑if, side by side

Move one lever. See the year‑by‑year difference.

Change the planting date, the irrigation trigger, or the variety and watch the distribution shift. The Decision Twin holds the weather constant across both scenarios, so the difference you see is the decision — not the luck.

Compare two scenarios with the same modelled seasons.
See where a change helps in dry years but costs in wet ones.
Grounded in the same FAO‑56 water balance the app uses all season.

This‑season outlook

Rainfall, heat and days‑to‑maturity — as ranges, not guesses.

The outlook accumulates a sub‑seasonal ensemble all the way to your crop's maturity and reports honest P10 / P50 / P90 ranges. You see the likely middle and both tails, so you can plan for the season you'll probably get and the one you might.

P10–P90rainfall to maturity

Heat daysabove the stress line

GDDaccumulation curve

Yieldwater‑limited range

Example verdicts

What an answer looks like

Illustrative — your numbers come from your field, your soil and your local weather.

Irrigate vs. dryland

+$92/ac, beats dryland in 8 of 10 seasons, worst year still +$18/ac. Verdict: irrigate at 55% MAD.

Plant early vs. wait

Two weeks earlier adds yield in dry years but risks a cool‑soil stand — net +$24/ac, won 6 of 10.

Variety A vs. B

The longer‑season variety wins the average but loses the dry tail — read the worst‑year floor before you commit.

Honest by design. The Decision Twin runs the FAO‑56 soil‑water balance and FAO‑33 yield response against a decade of your field's local weather. It starts from a modelled soil state and reads best as a range, not a promise. It's decision support to weigh a call — not a guarantee of the outcome.

Stop guessing at the big calls.

Draw a field, set a strategy, and see which move pays — with the odds.

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Season simulator & outlook included on every plan